Pembrokeshire

Can Pembrokeshire afford to lose 85% of its children's home places?

Major changes to children's residential care are already underway across Wales.

Ask your MS to protect children's care in Pembrokeshire See what's at stake

85%

39 of Pembrokeshire's 46 registered children's home places

From 2030, privately run children's homes will be restricted from providing care. We’re asking the new Welsh Government to take three simple steps to protect the care children need.

See the three steps

What's at stake in Pembrokeshire?

10 out of 12

children's homes are affected by the changes.¹

£7 million

If these homes are unable to continue operating and are forced to close, replacing this lost capacity would have an indicative cost of £7 million in Pembrokeshire.²

39 out of 46

registered children's-home places are affected (85%)

* Where these figures come from

¹At 31 March 2026, 10 of 12 registered children's homes in Pembrokeshire were for-profit. They provided 39 of 46 registered places (85%).

Welsh Government, Removing profit from the care of children who are looked after – transition to a not-for-profit model: Report 3 (July 2026). https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2026-07/removing-profit-from-care-for-looked-after-children-third-report_0.pdf

²£700,000 is used as a modelling assumption based on the Welsh Government's standard development cost of £700,000 per children's residential home, used in its assessment of the transition to a not-for-profit model. The figure used here applies that national benchmark on a one-for-one basis to the affected homes. Welsh Government, Health and Social Care (Wales) Act 2025: Explanatory Memorandum incorporating the Regulatory Impact Assessment and Explanatory Notes (April 2025), para. 7.103. https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2026-08/health-social-care-wales-act-2025-explanatory-memorandum.pdf

Pembrokeshire within Wales

Why is this happening?

Residential childcare provides critical care for children who often need highly specialist support. In Wales, most of this care is provided by privately run children’s homes – many of them small, locally-rooted organisations with experienced teams and expertise developed over many years.

These organisations exist because our children, families and communities need them. But the previous Welsh Government introduced a policy to remove all private organisations from children’s social care, and there is no plan for where the children will go. These providers would have to close their company, make their experienced staff redundant, and establish a completely new charity in order to continue providing care. With no other not-for-profit models being accepted, communities across Wales will lose vital services and expertise.

The new Welsh Government has an opportunity to review the timeline, and the policy, to protect the services our children, families and communities need.

How the changes roll out

2026 No new private providers can open children’s homes, existing ones can’t expand their services.
2027 Existing privately run children’s homes can no longer add additional places for children.
2030 Private providers will no longer be able to accept children into their care, unless in exceptional circumstances.

What are the risks?

01

Can Pembrokeshire afford an indicative £7 million replacement cost — and potentially higher ongoing costs?

Pembrokeshire's 2026/27 budget identifed £12 million of projected additional pressure in social care alone, with social care representing 42% of the total Council service pressures. There was an overall funding gap of £14.7 million which had to be addressed through a council tax increase, use of reserves, and £10.1 million of service savings.³
02

Can Pembrokeshire meet the demand for children's-home places in time?

39 of 46 registered local places (85%) are in homes affected by the policy.⁴ Replacing registered capacity is not simply a matter of finding another building. New provision requires investment, registration, experienced managers, skilled staff teams and time.
03

Will children and families have the specialist care they need?

If suitable homes are lost, social workers will have fewer options to find the right match for each child. Children can face longer journeys, greater disruption or placements chosen because they are available rather than because they are right for them. As of 31 March 2025, there are already 75 children from Pembrokeshire placed in settings outside of the local authority boundary.⁵

* Sources for this area

³Pembrokeshire County Council, Budget 2026-27 Medium Term Financial Plan. https://mgenglish.pembrokeshire.gov.uk/mgConvert2PDF.aspx?ID=82982

⁴Welsh Government, Removing profit from the care of children who are looked after – transition to a not-for-profit model: Report 3 (July 2026). https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2026-07/removing-profit-from-care-for-looked-after-children-third-report_0.pdf

⁵StatsWales, Children looked after on 31 March by placement type.

https://stats.gov.wales/en-GB/9c919cc3-9731-46aa-8771-893cb4e75244/pivot/pued1s9j904b?page_size=25#about. Data note: Values have been rounded to the nearest 5.

Take action

Ask your MS to protect the care children need in Pembrokeshire and across Wales

Review. Delay. Protect the care children need.

The planned changes are already impacting on children, young people and communities in Pembrokeshire. The new government has an opportunity to protect children and the services they rely on, without changing any intentions for reform.

Join us in asking the new Government Members of the Senedd to put children, families and communities first:

01 Review the policy – evidence shows the previous Government conceived this policy without proper understanding of residential childcare or the risks of going ahead
02 Delay the timeline – prevent further harm to children and families by adopting a realistic timescale
03 Protect the local organisations who care – widen the acceptable models available to responsible providers, whose capacity and specialist expertise our children, families and communities can't afford to lose.

Your representatives need to know that this matters in Pembrokeshire.

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Dear [MS name],

I’m writing as one of your constituents after reading the evidence about the changes to children’s residential care published at CareChildrenNeed.Wales.

I support the principle that money intended for children’s care should benefit children. However, having considered the evidence, I am concerned that the policy’s implementation — and the timescales involved — could have serious unintended consequences for children and families, as well as significant financial consequences for councils and communities across Wales.

The evidence raises important questions about whether Wales can replace enough of the existing residential care provision in time, the potential cost to the public, and the risk of losing experienced providers, specialist teams and established homes. Most importantly, it raises the question of what happens to children if the right care is not available when and where they need it.

What concerns me most is that children who need residential care often have complex, highly individual needs. Finding the right home is not simply about finding an available bed. It depends on having the right staff, expertise, relationships, environment and support around that child.

I am also seriously concerned about the policy’s financial cost. I support the principle of a social care system based on social value, but that cannot mean ignoring the wider consequences for public finances. The analysis published by CareChildrenNeed.Wales estimates that, over the next four years, the additional cost could be equivalent to £300–£500 per household in Wales.

At a time when families and public services are already under significant financial pressure, I would like to understand why a policy inherited from the previous Welsh Government is being continued without a fundamental reassessment of its affordability, timetable and the evidence on its likely consequences.

Having considered the evidence, I am asking you to support three practical steps:

1. Delay the timescales
Allow sufficient time for safe, suitable provision to be secured before further restrictions risk reducing the care available to children.

2. Review the policy and its implementation
Review the latest evidence on sufficiency, costs, workforce capacity and the impact of implementation, so that decisions reflect the circumstances Wales faces now rather than assumptions made when the policy was originally developed.

3. Protect the care children need
Ensure there are genuinely viable routes for good existing providers, homes and experienced teams to remain part of the care system, while preserving the principle that public money for children’s care should be used in children’s interests.

I am not asking the Welsh Government to abandon the principle behind the reforms. I am asking it to ensure that implementation does not leave children with fewer suitable homes, disrupt stable care, or require substantial public funding to replace good provision that children already rely on.

The evidence and sources underpinning these concerns are available at CareChildrenNeed.Wales/the-evidence, including the financial analysis, evidence on residential care capacity and timescales, and the potential impact on children and families.

Please consider this evidence, raise these concerns with the Welsh Government, and support the three practical steps set out above?

I would be grateful to know your position on these issues and the action you are prepared to take.

Yn gywir / Kind regards,

Annwyl [enw’r AS],

Rwy’n ysgrifennu atoch fel un o’ch etholwyr ar ôl darllen y dystiolaeth am y newidiadau i ofal preswyl plant sydd wedi’i chyhoeddi ar CareChildrenNeed.Wales.

Rwy’n cefnogi’r egwyddor y dylai arian sydd wedi’i fwriadu ar gyfer gofal plant fod o fudd i blant. Fodd bynnag, ar ôl ystyried y dystiolaeth, rwy’n pryderu y gallai’r ffordd y mae’r polisi’n cael ei roi ar waith — a’r amserlenni dan sylw — am arwain tuag at ganlyniadau difrifol, anfwriadol i blant a theuluoedd, yn ogystal â chanlyniadau ariannol sylweddol i gynghorau a chymunedau ledled Cymru.

Mae’r dystiolaeth yn codi cwestiynau pwysig ynglyn a os all Cymru ddisodli digon o’r ddarpariaeth gofal preswyl bresennol mewn pryd, y gost bosibl i’r cyhoedd, a’r risg o golli darparwyr profiadol, timau arbenigol a chartrefi sefydledig. Yn bwysicaf oll, mae’n codi’r cwestiwn o beth sy’n digwydd i blant os nad yw’r gofal cywir ar gael pryd a lle y mae ei angen arnynt.

Yr hyn sy’n achosi’r pryder mwyaf i mi, yw bod gan blant a anghenion cymleth yn aml angen gofal preswyl ac unigol . Nid mater o ddod o hyd i wely sydd ar gael yn unig yw dod o hyd i’r cartref cywir. Mae’n dibynnu ar gael y staff, yr arbenigedd, y perthnasoedd, yr amgylchedd a’r cymorth cywir o amgylch y plentyn hwnnw.

Rwyf hefyd yn bryderus iawn am gost ariannol y polisi. Rwy’n cefnogi’r egwyddor o system gofal cymdeithasol sy’n seiliedig ar werth cymdeithasol, ond ni all hynny olygu anwybyddu’r oblygiadau ehangach i gyllid cyhoeddus. Mae’r dadansoddiad a gyhoeddwyd gan CareChildrenNeed.Wales yn amcangyfrif y gallai’r gost ychwanegol, dros y pedair blynedd nesaf, fod yn gyfatebol o £300–£500 fesul aelwyd yng Nghymru.

Ar adeg pan fo teuluoedd a gwasanaethau cyhoeddus eisoes dan bwysau ariannol sylweddol, hoffwn ddeall pam mae polisi a etifeddwyd gan Lywodraeth flaenorol Cymru yn parhau heb ailasesiad sylfaenol o’i fforddiadwyedd ariannol, ei amserlen a’r dystiolaeth ynghylch ei ganlyniadau tebygol.

Ar ôl ystyried y dystiolaeth, rwy’n gofyn i chi gefnogi tri cham ymarferol:

1. Gohirio’r amserlenni
Caniatáu digon o amser i sicrhau darpariaeth ddiogel ac addas cyn i gyfyngiadau pellach beryglu lleihau’r gofal sydd ar gael i blant.

2. Adolygu’r polisi a’r ffordd y caiff ei roi ar waith
Adolygu’r dystiolaeth ddiweddaraf ar ddigonolrwydd darpariaeth, costau, capasiti’r gweithlu ac effaith gweithredu’r polisi, fel bod penderfyniadau’n adlewyrchu’r amgylchiadau sy’n gwynebu Cymru heddiw yn hytrach na’r rhagdybiaethau a wnaed pan ddatblygwyd y polisi’n wreiddiol.

3. Diogelu’r gofal sydd ei angen ar blant
Sicrhau bod llwybrau gwirioneddol ymarferol ar gael i ddarparwyr da presennol, bod cartrefi a thimau profiadol dal i barhau i fod yn rhan o’r system ofal, gan gynnal yr egwyddor y dylai arian cyhoeddus ar gyfer gofal plant gael ei ddefnyddio ar gyfer budd plant.

Nid wyf yn gofyn i Lywodraeth Cymru gefnu ar yr egwyddor sydd wrth wraidd y diwygiadau. Rwy’n gofyn i sicrhau nad yw’r ffordd y cafwyd eu rhoi ar waith yn gadael plant â llai o gartrefi addas, yn amharu ar ofal sefydlog, nac yn golygu bod angen cyllid cyhoeddus sylweddol i ddisodli darpariaeth dda y mae plant eisoes yn dibynnu arni.

Mae’r dystiolaeth a’r ffynonellau sy’n sail i’r pryderon hyn ar gael yn CareChildrenNeed.Wales/the-evidence, gan gynnwys y dadansoddiad ariannol, tystiolaeth am gapasiti ac amserlenni gofal preswyl, a’r effaith bosibl ar blant a theuluoedd.

A wnewch chi ystyried y dystiolaeth hon, codi’r pryderon hyn gyda Llywodraeth Cymru, a chefnogi’r tri cham ymarferol a nodir uchod?

Byddwn yn ddiolchgar o gael gwybod eich safbwynt ar y materion hyn a pha gamau yr ydych yn barod i’w chymryd.

Yn gywir / Kind regards,

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Can Pembrokeshire afford to lose 85% of its children's home places?

From 2030, privately run children's homes will be restricted from providing care. We’re asking the new Welsh Government to take three simple steps to protect the care children need.

What's at stake in Pembrokeshire?

Why is this happening?

How the changes roll out

What are the risks?

Can Pembrokeshire afford an indicative £7 million replacement cost — and potentially higher ongoing costs?

Can Pembrokeshire meet the demand for children's-home places in time?

Will children and families have the specialist care they need?

Ask your MS to protect the care children need in Pembrokeshire and across Wales

Your representatives need to know that this matters in Pembrokeshire.

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